Kweilin Ellingrud, Tanguy Catlin, Diego Castresana, and Anna Kortis, McKinsey
The US economy could create more jobs in the next decade than will be replaced through automation, but the change may require the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history. We estimate that roughly 11 million workers in declining occupations may need to transition to new jobs, ranging from six million to 16 million depending on the pace of automation adoption and its impact on labor demand. Jobs of the future, particularly growing jobs, could pay more on average but require more skills. Administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics occupations. One in seven workers could have a direct pathway into growing jobs, but almost half may face an unpaved pathway. While every transitioning worker has a route into growing work, Overall, more than 70 percent of workers could require some level of reinvention because new tasks may require more than 15 percent of their time. Three types of skills help workers move, move up, and keep adapting.
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