Gradually, then Suddenly: Upon the Threshold Small improvements can lead to big changes - ETHAN MOLLICK, One Useful Thing

At some point, the current wave of AI technologies will hit their limits and progress will slow, but no one knows when this will occur. Until that happens, it is worth contemplating the concluding lines to OpenAI’s new paper on using AI to debug AI code: “From this point on, the intelligence of LLMs… will only continue to improve. Human intelligence will not.” We know this may not be true forever, but, in the meantime, the steady improvement in AI ability is less important than the thresholds of change. Keep an eye on the thresholds.

https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/gradually-then-suddenly-upon-the